For krikey sake..

Today played out like a bad poker movie script. I just couldn't do anything right. Preflop all in average equity 52%.. hands won at showdown when all in preflop= 42%.

Flop average all in equity of 58%, hands won at showdown when all in on flop= 46%.

Turn average all in equity of 60%, hands won at showdown when all in on flop= 54%.

I actually lost money today when all in preflop with QQ, avg all in was 65%.. over 50 times.

The graph is actually deceiving.. I was nearly breakeven on non-showdown winnings over the last 7k hands.. so my postflop play had to be spot on. All of the losses are at showdown.

So what gives?

I am not sure where to go from here.. I am now $3,500 under ev over the last 6 weeks... 175 buy-ins. This is the most brutal negative variance I have ever faced. The sick thing is I feel like I am playing better than ever.. I review hands and study this friggin game like 30 hrs a week. I just feel like I'm getting screwed right now. Now I can see how people think poker is rigged lol. I know its not.. but has anyone ever ran this bad for this long?

Blah blah blah

-$1,100 ev this week, ended up down like $400.

Played 52k hands and 39 hrs. Going for even more volume this week.

Going to throw mega volume at variance in an attempt to slay it.

Just when you think you got it all figured out..

...poker bitchslaps you back into your place.

So I was going to play all week without looking at the cashier. Today I accidentally saw my earnings in HEM and almost threw the laptop out the window. I dropped $1,200 since Monday (-600 ev). So now I am glad I looked because I am playing terrible and definitely need to adjust quick.

It seems I had become Mr. weak tight passive again, a problem that has plagued me in the past. This game is all about aggression and even though I know that.. I tend to go on auto pilot and try and make hands before putting money in the pot. Yes, I'm an idiot.

So back to square one. I dropped a couple tables so I can focus better and will have to live with less hands per hour for awhile until I can correct this BS.

I did play 4500 hands after realizing how bad I was playing and focused more on winning dead money, picking up pots no one wants etc. I was -$10, +$70 ev. Not too bad.. I may have overdone it a bit as I was +$100 in non-showdown earnings.

So I will spend the rest of the week trying to be the most aggressive bastard I can and at least if the bankroll crashes and burns, I will have gone down swinging.

A lot of thinking, not so much time spent playing

I only played about 28 hrs this week managing about $750 in profit. I just didn't feel that confident in my game so I spent my usual 60+ hrs studying preflop and postflop scenarios trying to determine optimal ranges and lines. My ultimate conclusion through all of this work is to forget what I know now and remember what I knew then.

What I am talking about is my focus this year on the minutia of playing "perfectly" in various spots instead of focusing on the simple stuff, like recognizing fish and extracting value. So starting yesterday night I took my game back in time with a hybrid on what I've learned lately and felt considerably more comfortable.

Decisions were a lot easier and even though its a very small sample, I am encouraged by the results. Note this graph is 3 hrs of play and I actually ran $100 under AIEV.

So this week my goal is a lot more volume and give yesterdays "changes" a decent sample size so I can see where I'm at.

Had my best week ever

After rakeback I had $1,025 in profit this week, which is my best cash game week ever. I didn't exactly play very well imo, but things definitely are starting to improve as my grasp for CAP games increases with experience.

I played just under 30 hrs this week and 42k hands. I am looking to get my volume up to 60k hands a week. I am increasing from 16 tables at once to 18 this week to see how it goes. This should put me in the 1650 hands per hour range which seems ideal since I am now getting around .35 vpps/hand at 100NL.

At 250k hands a month I'd be bringing in 5k/month at 100NL in rakeback alone.

My target this week is to play 36 hrs and 60k hands.

Another doomswitch Friday

It wasn't as bad as last Friday but once again I simply could not win at showdown. Check out the circled numbers.

This is when all-in after 3-betting from the blinds. Of course when called my range is going to be weaker but due to fold equity 47% should be absolutely crushing it. But then take a look at won $ at showdown. Over 10% below what is should be. Since the typical all in is $40 at 100NL that basically means that I have to hand the villain $4 at the beginning of the all-in and then we race for the rest. Not fun. And since I had over 100 all-in calls today from the blinds well.. you do the math.

Luckily I ran slightly above ev when all in on the flop and turn and so after rakeback I was really only down about $200. Not too bad. The sick thing is if I had just run average in all-ins I would have been up about $300 today.

I had regained quiet a bit of my losses going into today and thought this might be the Friday that turns it around. I have run like ass every Friday for about 2 months.. isn't this supposed to be the day we make all of our dough?

So I move on with only minimal damage today. I continue to tweak my game every day. I have spent about 20-30 hours a week pouring over HEM stats and such trying to fix any leaks I can find and optimize my play. I may get the guy staking me to give me a coaching session soon since that is part of the deal.

Its 1 AM so I'm gonna hit the sack. I'll try to post again after my last Sunday session.

A little better

Things have gone much better since Sunday night and even though I feel like I am still running pretty bad postflop, the preflop doomswitch seems to be off at least for now. I am still working hard on my game and making minor tweaks here and there. I still have a few leaks and am trying my best to figure them out.

On another note, I feel like tournaments are my best game so I play in a free pub poker league here in Charlotte. Yeah the play is generally horrible, but its still good practice for live play. There are some decent level two players and even a couple level threes but they are a small percentage. 60% or so are level one nits and the rest are just recreational donks.

There are usually between 15-25 people per game and the games generally last 1.5-3 hrs depending on the blind levels. I am pretty sure I get a higher percentage of final tables and top 3 finishes than anyone else in the league, I just don't play but one day a week so I typically fly under the radar. Most of the "decent" players in the league don't like my game and think (sometimes rather vocally) that I am a bad player. They wonder how I get so lucky to win again and again lol.

Anyways, this Monday night was especially fun. I was chip leader in all 3 games going into the final table and was two 60/40s flips short of taking down all three games. I had went 1st/2nd quiet a few times but had never won two in a row. So it was cool to almost win three consecutive games after winning two in a row for the first time.

And for a final brag, here are my live poker stats for the past 2 seasons.

1st: 11

2nd: 7

3rd: 8

4th: 5

5th: 0

6th: 1

7th: 1

8th: 1

9th: 2

Final tables: 36/38

I don't really keep records of my play beyond last season but I am guessing I have won about 60 games now and have won two bracelet games in 6 tries. I also have won two high roller events and final tabled 4 out of 5. These events are 100-120 people and have much tougher fields than regular games.

Anyone in the Charlotte area is welcome to message me if they want to come out to a game for a beer and fun.