WEEEEE

No need to go into detail on this one.

I continue to work hard on my game. If my ev winrate was better the sting of this would be less. I truly feel a 2ptbb winrate is possible at CAP tables. I am studying more than playing right now to try and get rid of all the leaks.

Two hands that sum up my month so far

It seems like a hand like these happens once every 10 minutes. I am not $800 under aiev for the month in only 40k hands. Its effectively 80 buy-ins for the 50NL CAP games. Brutal.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($40.45)

SB ($9.50)

Hero (BB) ($26)

UTG ($17)

MP ($24.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A

3 folds, SB bets $9.25 (All-In), Hero calls $9

Flop: ($19) 8, 7, 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($19) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($19) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $19

Results:

SB had 7, 8 (two pair, eights and sevens).

Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).

Outcome: SB won $18.05

The next one is my favorite of all. When the money went in and I saw his holding I actually said out loud, "FINALLY! ONE I CAN ACTUALLY WIN!" Then when the flop hit I said, "OH SHIT, HE'S GOT A RUNNER RUNNER" And sure enough.. it came like clockwork. I almost puked for real.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($50.30)

Hero (BB) ($21.50)

UTG ($31.10)

MP ($71.20)

CO ($51.50)

Button ($8.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K

3 folds, Button bets $2, 1 fold, Hero raises $19, Button calls $6.65 (All-In)

Flop: ($17.80) 8, 2, 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($17.80) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($17.80) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $17.80

Results:

Button had K, 9 (straight, nine high).

Hero had K, K (one pair, Kings).

Outcome: Button won $16.95

Today I went through HEM and looked at a bunch of the regs. It seems like 90% of them are running way over AIEV and are STILL losing money. Its a good thing I am there to keep their bankrolls afloat.

Here is the graph. Hopefully I have bottomed out.

50NL still doesn't like me

So I was staked to move up to 100NL, so I have began playing there. Suddenly all of the bad beats disappeared and things were going smoothly. I was winning a few races here and there. My overpairs were holding up for the most part.

So after each of my 100NL sessions that past two days I went ahead and fired up some 50NL tables for some "stress free" grinding to add some more vpps.

And each time.. BOOM. Doomswitch. I had sets flopped on me numerous times, backdoors flushed a few times while valuebetting against air type hands... you name it, it happened. Because of all the postflop coolers I am now starting to run under aiev. Bad news. The 10-15 buy-ins I have to give up at the start of each session are impossible to overcome if I run bad postflop too.

I guess I shouldn't be complaining really. At least the doomswitches are only hitting at 50NL so far. I guess running bad just always stings, no matter the stakes.

I filtered out for preflop all-ins and in the last 2 days I am averaging 48% equity and winning 38% of showdowns over 200 all in hands. Overall I am averaging 52.5% equity when all in preflop and winning at 46%. Its really hard to comprehend how huge that is. I am trying to wrap my head around it. As an example, if I had run equally as good as I did bad in the past 2 weeks, it would have meant an additional $1,000 in my bankroll over those 30k hands. That's 100 buy-ins difference at 50NL!

I'll settle for just getting my equity.. I don't want more.. just please stop making my 88 an exact coinflip to 98s.. which the way I running, basically is from an equity standpoint.

So my history with 50NL continues. I run bad deep stacked, half stacked, and now short stacked. I should ask pokerstars to ban me from opening 50NL tables.

Anyone got lube?

The poker Gods continue to bend me over. In the past 2 weeks, I am going through my worst short term negative variance ever. Today was no different. One hand summed it up perfectly.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($40.45)

SB ($9.50)

Hero (BB) ($26)

UTG ($17)

MP ($24.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♥, A♦

3 folds, SB bets $9.25 (All-In), Hero calls $9

Flop: ($19) 8♦, 7♥, 3♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($19) 2♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($19) 9♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $19

Results:

SB had 7♣, 8♣ (two pair, eights and sevens).

Hero had A♥, A♦ (one pair, Aces).

Outcome: SB won $18.05

So I can't win with AK vs A3o, or KQs vs KJo. I have to be a 4-1 favorite just to have a chance. The few times I do win pots, it seems I have to suck out on the river after being outflopped. Its a good thing I don't monitor how the all-ins are going during my sessions, or my laptop would already have flown out the window.

Here is todays graph and my total journey through 50NL CAP so far.

After my initial adjustment period, I feel like I am crushing the game. But where are the results? Over the past 15k hands (4-8 tabling so its a lot of time spent playing) I am running ev adjusted 5bbs/100. On all-ins I am a 53.3% favorite on average and am winning 49.3% of showdowns. Apparently that 4% accounts for the $330 under ev I am running.

So come on Pokerstars. SHOW ME DA MONEY!

Staked+Switched games

After much deliberation, I decided to accept a staking by one of the most profitable players in the game. The package includes a full stake in whatever game he decides I should play in and "free" coaching. In return I pay him 50% of profits until the end of 2011. If I am able to move up and grind higher stakes now, its possible I can increase my hourly rate significantly.. even with the 50% deduction.

I'm just over a week in and I can say I am excited abut the opportunity. He has me playing the 50NL CAP games and its surprisingly a lot more fun than I expected. Its like a learning a new game altogether, but my deeper stack and SNG background is definitely a big plus on quickening the learning curve.

Although I am experiencing a lot of negative variance so far, I feel like I am on the verge of crushing it. In my first 8k hands or so while I was learning, it was a bit of a struggle. Now for the past 12k hands I am running ev 5.20bb/100.

The only problem is... take a look at the graph. Its some of the most ridiculous cash game variance I have ever faced.

In 21k hands I am 50 buy-ins under AIEV.

50.

FIFTY!!!!!

The sick thing is, even with all of this bullshit I am still net up $100 after rakeback and a $50 stellar reward. All I can do is keep grinding and wait for the poker Gods to at least lube up a little before they bend me over.

By the way, right now my staker has me grinding 6-8 tables at once while I learn. So 21k hands represents like 40 hrs of play.

40 hrs of hell.

I'll post more frequently now that I have decided which direction to take.