The poker Gods continue to bend me over. In the past 2 weeks, I am going through my worst short term negative variance ever. Today was no different. One hand summed it up perfectly.
Button ($40.45)
SB ($9.50)
Hero (BB) ($26)
UTG ($17)
MP ($24.25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A♥, A♦
3 folds, SB bets $9.25 (All-In), Hero calls $9
Flop: ($19) 8♦, 7♥, 3♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($19) 2♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($19) 9♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $19
Results:
SB had 7♣, 8♣ (two pair, eights and sevens).
Hero had A♥, A♦ (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: SB won $18.05
So I can't win with AK vs A3o, or KQs vs KJo. I have to be a 4-1 favorite just to have a chance. The few times I do win pots, it seems I have to suck out on the river after being outflopped. Its a good thing I don't monitor how the all-ins are going during my sessions, or my laptop would already have flown out the window.
Here is todays graph and my total journey through 50NL CAP so far.
After my initial adjustment period, I feel like I am crushing the game. But where are the results? Over the past 15k hands (4-8 tabling so its a lot of time spent playing) I am running ev adjusted 5bbs/100. On all-ins I am a 53.3% favorite on average and am winning 49.3% of showdowns. Apparently that 4% accounts for the $330 under ev I am running.
So come on Pokerstars. SHOW ME DA MONEY!
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