Today played out like a bad poker movie script. I just couldn't do anything right. Preflop all in average equity 52%.. hands won at showdown when all in preflop= 42%.
Flop average all in equity of 58%, hands won at showdown when all in on flop= 46%.
Turn average all in equity of 60%, hands won at showdown when all in on flop= 54%.
I actually lost money today when all in preflop with QQ, avg all in was 65%.. over 50 times.
The graph is actually deceiving.. I was nearly breakeven on non-showdown winnings over the last 7k hands.. so my postflop play had to be spot on. All of the losses are at showdown.
So what gives?
I am not sure where to go from here.. I am now $3,500 under ev over the last 6 weeks... 175 buy-ins. This is the most brutal negative variance I have ever faced. The sick thing is I feel like I am playing better than ever.. I review hands and study this friggin game like 30 hrs a week. I just feel like I'm getting screwed right now. Now I can see how people think poker is rigged lol. I know its not.. but has anyone ever ran this bad for this long?
Solution: don't play CAP tables when ur a solid 100bb table player
ReplyDeleteYeah I know, but my I had to cash out the bankroll and the guy that offered to stake me is one of the best CAP game players in the world.. I figure it can't hurt to master 20 bb play as some of the ideas transfer directly to 100bb play. Low SPR situations, blind defense, etc. I will likely switch back to 100bb games after this year when the staking ends. I just feel like this is part of my total poker education.
ReplyDeleteLooking back at this period it's actually pretty funny. I had more leaks early this year than a Swiss cheese boat.
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