Sunday, November 29, 2009

Self Doubt

So I have run like 1BB/100 in my last 50k 25NL hands. I am wondering if this is just variance or some major issue with my game. I ran 3.5BB/100 my first 60k hands and then fell off a cliff.

So I decided to get back to basics and run 50bbs today and work on fundamentals. But continued to get rivered and run into the top of villain's range over and over again. I ended up $20 down for the day. I did have one suckout myself... I rivered a queen against AK after we both flopped a K and got it all in. Suckouts for me almost never seem to happen though, but man.. its like 6 or 7 times a session for me.

I am not one to whine about bad beats as I don't believe in them.. there's equity and equity only.. and I know it all works out over the long run. But running bad over several thousand hands really is the pits.

I guess the good news is, even though my win rate has dropped.. I am STILL winning.. which is important to keep in mind. My horrible sessions seem to be break even or 1-2 by ins down where my average sessions are 2-3 buy ins up. I am still waiting for a good sessions. I haven't run good over an entire session since the 8th of this month.

At any rate.. I may stick to the 50bb buy in thing for a bit. Its also a way of reducing variance and allows one to move up a bit faster, assuming I still move down as needed. So I am going to give 50NL another shot (at 50bbs) once I hit 1,300.. which is basically 50 buy ins if I buy in short... more than ample. I will move back down if I drop to $1,000.

-- Update --
Hands played in latest Op: 35,034
Hands left to play in 2009: 164,966

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